— Council chief executive Richard Shakespeare has said he’ll take two weeks to decide on when the plan will be implemented.
An economic assessment report commissioned by the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance has been questioned as relying on “completely poor metrics and understanding of how the plan fundamentally works.”
The economic report was written by PMCA Economic Consulting’s managing director, Pat McCloughan. He previously authored a report that predicted that a traffic and public realm plan for Lucan Village, which would result in a reduction of just ten (10) car parking spaces and no major traffic movement changes, would lead to a loss of 53% of the 600 jobs in the area.
The Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance was set up to oppose the College Green Plaza and its only apparent activity is lobbying against car-free streets, cycle routes, and bus priority measures. It is made up of Brown Thomas Arnotts, Jervis Shopping Centre, Retail Excellence Ireland, Restaurants Association of Ireland, Louis Copeland & Sons, Irish Parking Association, Best Car Parks, and Fitzwilliam Real Estate Capital — meaning five of its members have direct interests in car parks.
In his report, McCloughan said: “The analysis indicates that the proposed traffic management changes would reduce retail spending in the City Centre by €141,253,366 in 2028 (when all the proposed changes would be in place) and lead to corresponding reductions in gross value added (GVA) of €87,253,471, employment 1,787 retail jobs, wages €94,198,090 and Exchequer revenue €18,262,152.”
Commenting on the report, Jason Cullen, chairperson of the Dublin Commuter Coalition, said: “Just as we expected, is falsely predicting a collapse of city centre business based on completely poor metrics and understanding of how the plan fundamentally works. It fails to take into account any increase in any modal shift of public or active transport.”
He said that the report incorrectly assumes motorists who are driving through the city centre are spending an average daily amount, based on a shopper survey from 2022.
The PMCA report references the Dublin City Centre Shopper Survey 2022 by polling company Behaviour & Attitudes for the National Transport Authority.
That shopper survey focuses on Grafton Street and Henry Street and found that — of the respondents in those locations — 65% of their main purpose in the city centre was shopping or paid recreational pursuits. This includes shopping (55%), going to a restaurant (5%), attending an event/cinema/theatre (4%), or going to the pub/having a drink out (1%).
In the PMCA report for the alliance group, McCloughan referred to the above survey and said: “…together implies that 65% visited the City Centre for retail spending (mainly shopping)…”.
Later in the report, McCloughan wrote: “However, we also need an estimate of the number of people crossing the Canal Cordon whose principal purpose for coming into the City Centre was retail spending. The relevant number is the aforementioned 65% (outlined earlier in footnote 8 in reference to the Behaviour & Attitudes survey commissioned by the NTA in 2022).”
In writing the report, McCloughan combined the data from the survey of people in the city’s two main shopping streets with the data for the Canal Cordon Report, which records all traffic entering the city centre.
Based on the canal counts and localised counts, Dublin City Council estimates that 60% of traffic in the core area is through traffic that does not stop for shopping etc. This is hardly a solo run for the council as retailer groups such as Dublin Town have long maintained that a majority of car users, especially at peak times, are not shoppers and that the council should focus on non-shopper traffic.
Localised data from the council shows that only 2% of people around O’Connell Bridge are in cars. One of the main measures in the traffic plan is bus gates on the north and south quays at the bridge.
Dublin City Council, for its part, has maintained that the plan targets through traffic while maintaining access to city centre car parks.
Cullen said: “It is clear by their own misrepresented metrics that the cost they expect to the business sector is actually lower than the cost of congestion as reported by the Department of Transport, which, of course, would be a net positive for the business sector.”
He said the report also “fails to factor in any economic cost to health or environmental while suggesting the overall impact to the Irish economy could be severe.”
Cullen added: “It’s very disappointing to see a report with such embarrassing errors being used by a small group of prominent businesses in the City Centre in a very transparent effort to maintain the status quo of one of the world’s worst congested cities to the detriment of the very customers they rely on.”
Cullen said that he and others met with Dublin City Council chief executive Richard Shakespeare today but it was only just after the head of the council management had received the PMCA report.
Ciara Murphy, who also attended the meeting as the environmental policy advocate at the Jesuit Centre for Faith and Justice, said: “We had a positive meeting with Richard Shakespeare from Dublin City Council, alongside our colleagues in the Dublin Commuter Coalition, Access for All and the Irish Cycling Campaign.”
“We’re still hopeful that in August that we’ll see a rollout of the Dublin City Transport Plan, but it’s not certain. So, we need to continue the pressure to make sure that it is rolled out on time and implemented in full,” she said.
Murphy added: “But it’s also clear that there’s very strong resistance from some retailers such as Brown Thomas, Arnotts and Jervis Street [Shopping Centre], which have car parks as well as retail centres. So, if we want to fight for a more healthy, liveable city we need to stand up to these retailers and say enough is enough.”