Lobby group claims its report is based on official data but leading academic questions conclusions

A member of a lobby group which wants the Dublin City Centre Transport Plan delayed and watered down has told RTE that a report it commissioned uses data from NTA and council, but a leading transport academic has that the report’s conclusion doesn’t align with official traffic data.

Professor Brian Caulfield, head of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering at Trinity College Dublin, appeared on RTE’s Morning Ireland and said he “completely understands” the concern from retailers but that international research shows that backlash to traffic plans is the norm and that “those fears tend not to pan out”.

He said that on his first reading of the lobby’s group report, he noticed some things “Jared a bit” and that it was missing “a whole heap of things” that he would expect to be in it, such cost of air pollution.

The economic report was written for the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance by PMCA Economic Consulting. Its managing director, Pat McCloughan, previously authored a report that predicted that a traffic and public realm plan for Lucan Village, which would result in a reduction of just ten (10) car parking spaces and no major traffic movement changes, would lead to a loss of 53% of the 600 jobs in the area.

The car-park-dominated Traders Alliance group comprises Brown Thomas Arnotts, Jervis Shopping Centre, Retail Excellence Ireland, Restaurants Association of Ireland, Louis Copeland & Sons, Irish Parking Association, Best Car Parks, and Fitzwilliam Real Estate Capital.

On RTE’s Morning Ireland this morning, Jean McCabe, CEO of Retail Excellence Ireland, said: “This report is solely based on data from the NTA and from Dublin City Council.”

However, those supporting the plan have stated that the report mixes two data sources: traffic data for the whole city centre inside the canals and shopper survey data from Graton Street and Henry Street.

These sources of data are incompatible but are used to reach the report’s conclusions. Mixing the two sources of data contradicts findings from Dublin City Council traffic analysis and long-term contentions from retailers that the majority of car traffic in the city centre is commuters, not shoppers.

McCabe also claimed on air that the transport plan looks to cut car-based shoppers by 40% when the council’s plan expressly said that the plan is targeting to reduce the 60% of through traffic in the city centre core, of which motorists do not stop at shops, etc., and that car parks will remain accessible.

Caulfield of TCD said: “Internationally, when these types of measures are brought into cities, in the run-up to them, there’s always a concern, there’s always worry. What we see internationally is that those fears tend not to pan out, and cities which introduce these things tend to keep them.”

“If we look at the report and the [NTA shopper] survey, it a survey was done on Grafton Street and Henry Street, and we know typically on pedestrian streets that people tend to spend more. The other thing it says is that 65% of the people who travel into the city on a daily basis, 356 days a year, spent on average €100 each — so that doesn’t even take into account weekend impacts,” he said.

Caulfield said: “The report doesn’t even take into account that 60% of the car traffic just passes through the city based on the NTA figures. So, there are some things in the report on my first reading of it that jar a bit; I’m not sure if the overall figure that they have produced is robust.”

“If you look at the UK, the spend factors they looked at where the car driver was spending more, a lot of international research would kind of dispute that where the cyclist, the pedestrian and those who use public transport would spend less [per trip] but would spend it more frequently,” he said.

Asked by the presenter if the project should go back to the drawing board, Caulfield said: “Definitely not. We go back to the drawing board far too often with transport plans in Ireland…. it’s taken us 20 years to deliver 40km of light rail in this city. So, delays like this have us in the situation we’re in. I think we need to be brave and need to push through.”

He highlighted that congestion is estimated to cost Dublin’s economy €360 million in 2023, and if nothing is done, it could cost €1.5 billion. He said that “a whole heap of things” such as air quality are missing from the economic analysis “that you’d expect to see.”

He added on climate action: “If Dublin cannot lead by example with the best public transport network in the State, how are we expecting other cities and towns to decrease their emissions, give up parking space and road space to cyclists and public transport?”